'Fossil fuel giants finally in the crosshairs': UN climate summit escapes utter breakdown with eleventh-hour deal.

When dawn was breaking the Amazonian city of Belém on Saturday morning, negotiators remained confined in a windowless conference room, unaware whether it was day or night. Having spent 12 hours in strained discussions, with scores ministers representing 17 groups of countries including the least developed nations to the most developed economies.

Frustration mounted, the air stifling as exhausted delegates faced up to the grim reality: they would not reach a comprehensive agreement in Brazil. The international climate negotiations teetered on the brink of complete breakdown.

The major obstacle: Fossil fuels

Research has demonstrated for more than a century, the CO2 emissions produced by burning fossil fuels is heating up our planet to dangerous levels.

Yet, during nearly three decades of annual climate meetings, the essential necessity to halt fossil fuel use has been referenced only once – in a decision made two years ago at previous UN climate talks to "shift from fossil fuels". Delegates from the Middle Eastern nations, Russia, and several other countries were adamant this would not happen again.

Growing momentum for change

Meanwhile, a growing number of countries were equally determined that progress on this issue was vitally needed. They had formulated a proposal that was attracting increasing support and made it evident they were willing to hold firm.

Developing countries urgently needed to make progress on securing economic resources to help them address the growing impacts of extreme weather.

Turning point

During the night of Saturday, some delegates were prepared to walk out and cause breakdown. "The situation was precarious for us," commented one national delegate. "I was ready to walk away."

The pivotal moment happened through negotiations with Saudi Arabia. Shortly after 6am, key negotiators left the main group to hold a private conversation with the chief Saudi negotiator. They encouraged text that would indirectly acknowledge the global commitment to "move beyond fossil fuels" made two years earlier in Dubai.

Surprising consensus

As opposed to explicitly referencing fossil fuels, the text would refer to "the Dubai agreement". After consideration, the Saudi delegation unexpectedly accepted the wording.

Participants expressed relief. Celebrations began. The agreement was completed.

With what became known as the "Belém political package", the world took another small step towards the phaseout of fossil fuels – a faltering, limited step that will scarcely affect the climate's ongoing trajectory towards catastrophe. But nevertheless a significant departure from complete stagnation.

Key elements of the agreement

  • Alongside the oblique commitment in the legally agreed text, countries will begin work a plan to systematically reduce fossil fuels
  • This will be mostly a non-binding program led by Brazil that will deliver findings next year
  • Addressing the required reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to not exceed the 1.5C limit was similarly postponed to next year
  • Developing countries secured a significant expansion to $120bn of regular financial support to help them adapt to the impacts of climate disasters
  • This sum will not be fully available until 2035
  • Workers will benefit from a "just transition mechanism" to help people working in polluting businesses move toward the sustainable sector

Mixed reactions

With global conditions approaches the brink of climate "critical thresholds" that could eliminate habitats and plunge whole regions into disorder, the agreement was not the "significant advancement" needed.

"Negotiators delivered some small advances in the right direction, but considering the scale of the climate crisis, it has not met the occasion," cautioned one policy director.

This limited deal might have been the maximum achievable, given the political challenges – including a US president who ignored the talks and remains aligned with oil and coal, the increasing presence of rightwing populism, continuing wars in different locations, intolerable levels of inequality, and global economic uncertainty.

"Fossil fuel corporations – the energy conglomerates – were at last in the spotlight at the climate summit," notes one policy convener. "We have crossed a threshold on that. The platform is accessible. Now we must convert it to a genuine solution to a protected environment."

Significant divisions revealed

While nations were able to welcome the gavelling through of the deal, Cop30 also exposed significant divisions in the primary worldwide framework for tackling the climate crisis.

"International summits are unanimity-required, and in a time of geopolitical divides, agreement is increasingly difficult to reach," observed one global leader. "It would be dishonest to claim that these talks has achieved complete success that is needed. The difference between where we are and what science demands remains dangerously wide."

Should the world is to avoid the most severe impacts of climate breakdown, the global discussions alone will fall far short.

Jacob Cox
Jacob Cox

A seasoned entrepreneur and startup advisor with over a decade of experience in venture capital and business development.